By Diane Alden
The NewsMax Years, No. 4
Though not as compelling to Americans as the approaching election to choose between Republicans, Democrats and third party candidates running for the presidency, upcoming Russian balloting holds some fascinating possibilities.
Until recently the two primary contestants in the Russian electoral horse race were Yevgevny Primakov and popular Moscow Mayor, Vladimir Luzhkov. The two joined forces bending over backwards to compliment and support each other. They seemed to be the dynamic duo, jockeying for a possible president, prime minister year 2000 administration. However, as fate and Boris Yeltsin would have it, the summertime firing of Primakov’s replacement, Prime Minister S. Stepashin, and the appointment of Vladimir Putin, threw a monkey wrench into electoral game plans.
As in the case of onetime Prime Minister Primakov, Vladimir Putin, a former KGB bureaucrat was chosen by Boris Yeltsin as Stepashin’s successor. Putin, a seemingly lackluster, nondescript Russian flunky, and to all appearances someone Yeltsin could control, has proved to be a reliable and popular leader.
In his brief tenure in office, Putin has managed to turn back two incursions into Dagestan by Chechan rebels and at the very least act in charge of events in the Caucasus region on Russia’s turbulent southern border.
Additionally, he is making noises like a domestic policy leader. In the past few weeks he has ordered the government to come up with a strategy for allowing Russians to buy their own apartments and thus, has begun a long awaited strategy for implementing a popular variety of private property ownership. According to RIA news agency Putin is supposed to have said: “Lack of housing generates social unrest…the only thing to be worked out is the concept of mortgages.” Sources say he has asked for a private property housing program within a month. One of the reasons the concept of private property hasn’t caught on in the past is that mortgage lenders were not protected from default. Evictions are notoriously difficult and complicated. New legislation has changed that and Putin made one small step towards something the average Russian understands – the need for housing.
All of these efforts in pursuing some sort of direction have made him appear like a leader. However, Putin has also been linked to the “St. Petersburg Coterie” whose leader is the very unpopular Russian ogre, Anatoly Chubais. Economic czar Chubais has been associated in the minds of Russians with miserable economic conditions and a failure to implement even marginally effective reforms. Nonetheless, at present, Vladimir Putin has a 65 percent approval rating.
With Russian Duma elections coming up on December 19th the struggle for supremacy seems to be shaping up into a three-man configuration. Opinion polls show former Prime Minister Yevgevny Primakov’s Fatherland Party, and also the Communists predicted to do well in the elections.
Boris Yeltsin is not happy about this. A media loyal to Yeltsin, has attacked Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, former P.M. Primakov and St. Petersburg Governor Vladimir Yakovlev. These three head up the Fatherland-All Russia party list for State Duma i.e. Russian congressional elections.
The Fatherland party is composed of Russia’s regional leaders much hated by Yeltsin’s insiders. If one of the three withdraws the entire party would be disqualified from the elections.The Byzantine-like Russian election laws work against incumbent parties. However, recently, the Yeltsin media switched the main focus of their harassment from Moscow Mayor Luzhkov to Primakov and Yakolev.
As the political line-up shapes up, the question becomes what happens next year if Putin doesn’t make any serious missteps? If history is any indication, because of his growing popularity, the insider Yeltsin crowd will probably have him fired.
Some Russian analysts believe that Yeltsin was convinced that the colorless Putin would not be a threat to his regime. He may also have believed that Putin would be easy to control from the sidelines when Yeltsin was out of office.
A poll by the Russian Center for Public Opinion Research, revealed Putin as the public’s favorite – ahead of both Primakov and Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov – for next year’s presidential elections.
Such popularity has proven dangerous to Putin’s predecessors.
The Yeltsin media sycophants, in the person of media tycoon Boris Bereszovsky, Ted Turner and CNN, Russian style, are getting apprehensive about Putin’s popularity. The media along with Yeltsin insiders known as the “the Family,” are trying to convince Yeltsin to dismiss Putin.
It was a recent October meeting of Yeltsin’s security chiefs that first kicked off media speculation that Putin would soon be sacked. Putin was no where to be seen and the excuse given did not seem to hold water.
The talk of an imminent ouster gained momentum when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Yakushkin told reporters that it would be “premature” to say that Putin was Yeltsin’s chosen successor.
“The president holds a very high opinion of the prime minister’s business qualities. But the question of a presidential successor does not stand now,” Yakushkin said.
When he nominated Putin as prime minister on Aug. 9, Yeltsin made it clear that he wanted the 46-year-old former KGB agent and former deputy mayor of St. Petersburg to succeed him as president.
What is the likely outcome of the power struggle in Russia? Some Russian scholars contemplate the prospect that the two men with governing experience, former Prime Minister Primakov and P.M. Putin, in addition to Yakolev and Luzhkov might form a coalition.
It probably is not a coincidence that Primakov and Putin are former KGB. The fact that each has served as Prime Minister may indicate that real power and control is still in the hands of the secret and seemingly invincible KGB.
If Putin remains in office as Yeltsin’s Prime Minister, and that is a big if, than he is most likely to increase his lead in the polls if he exhibits even the most minor of leadership qualities.
He made Russian headlines recently, when he said Russia was falling farther and farther behind in world dominance and that would have to stop. This gave the proud Russians a much needed morale boost.
If Yeltsin cans him, Putin would probably join forces with Primakov and the popular Luzhkov to form some type of Troika: three-horse team.
The configuration in 2000 of president, prime minister and a third power position such as foreign minister, is a leadership dynamic that should be of interest and possible concern to the West. In addition, a “troika” would be both popular with the Russian electorate and put in place three known quantities who might offer a semblance of direction to the floudering Russians.
For the most part, American observations and superficial press analyses of all things Russian are not grounded in reality. Russia is more Eastern than Western. That means that the economic and political tug of war going on in Russia is not merely an attempt to incorporate a free market system and the attendant Western style democracy into a waiting and flexible Russian form.
It must also get all the wild cats back into the Russian sack as it attempts to fortify its southern borders and hold off attempts by former colonies to align with the West.
Mix up the election process with the various elements including, the powerful oligarchy, the regional and district leaders, the Russian mafia, the military, the church, money problems, incredible tangle of reforms and communism, plus the overwhelming tendency of Russians to look to central authority for direction; and Russian scene is going to look like Dodge City during the wooliest of wild west days.
The two men most likely to become the leaders in the 21st century are modern enough to know what ails the insecure Russian pysche, while realizing Russia needs Western investment and support. As former KGB who have maintained their power base, they also understand that security and stability — Russian version — may require a return to central control.
Someday Russia may find its way to a kind of representative democracy. Someday it may even have a form of a free market; however, for the short term, it may not be to Western understanding or liking.
(First published in NewsMax.com on Nov. 8, 1999.)
The Moral Liberal Senior Editor, Diane Alden, was one of NewsMax.com’s most popular and outspoken pundits ( 1999–2008), and before that, a wonk for The Nevada Policy Institute. A former DJ in Georgia, Diane of late has been a weekly guest on the East Coast hit program, The Marc Bernier Show. Diane is loved for her quick sense of humor, creative vocabulary, independence of mind, and her penetrating analysis of a wide range of political, economic, and cultural issues.
